From Sparks to Prairie Fires: Spatial Mechanisms of Group Mobilization∗

Scholars have frequently mentioned the link between a group’s settlement pattern and its involvement in violent conflict. In this paper, I develop a computational model to examine this relationship in detail. I argue that the settlement pattern of a group has an impact on group mobilization, because it determines how quickly mobilization can spread from a few extremists to the entire group population. All else being equal, groups with a settlement pattern which is favorable to the spread of mobilization should show a higher probability of conflict. I propose a simple geographical mobilization mechanism. Starting with a few mobilized individuals located in the major cities of a group, mobilization spreads by means of individuals traveling between cities. The model uses real-world geographic data of group territories and cities. This way, it is possible to artificially mobilize an ethnic group according to the proposed mechanism, and to measure the ”difficulty” of mobilization of that group. This measure is then used as a predictor of conflict in a statistical analysis. ∗Paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association in Chicago, August 30–September 2, 2007 and for the Sixth PanEuropean Conference on International Relations in Torino, September 12-15, 2007. The title borrows from Kuran (1989). I am grateful to Lars-Erik Cederman, Tim Dertwinkel, Patrick Kuhn and Julian Wucherpfennig for comments.